LSI: Jokowi Dua Kali Lebih Populer dari Prabowo, Demokrat Terpuruk
LSI: Jokowi is Twice as Popular as Prabowo, Demoractic Party`s Slump
Reporter : Rizki Saleh
Editor : Cahyani Harzi
Translator : Dhelia Gani
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Jakarta (B2B) - Survei terbaru mendapati bahwa Gubernur DKI Jakarta Joko "Jokowi" Widodo dua kali lebih populer daripada Letjen (Purn) Prabowo Subianto, Ketua Dewan Pembina Gerakan Indonesia Raya (Gerindra).
Survei opini publik oleh Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI) menyatakan apabila pemilihan presiden dilangsungkan hari ini, Jokowi akan meraih suara pemilih sekitar 22,3% hingga 35,6%, melawan Prabowo yang akan mengumpulkan sekitar 12,6% dan 19,7%.
Survei ini memperkirakan jumlah suara terbesar diperoleh oleh Jokowi dan Prabowo hanya bisa terwujud jika pemilih belum memutuskan - yang terdiri atas 30% dari pemilih - mengambil keputusan.
Peneliti senior LSI Adjie Alfaraby mengatakan keberhasilan Jokowi akan menular pada partai politiknya, Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P), dalam Pemilu Legislatif.
"Kalau Jokowi dicalonkan oleh PDI-P, posisinya di peringkat teratas akan aman, memicu persaingan ketat antara Prabowo dan [Ketua Partai Golkar] Aburizal Bakrie," kata Adjie.
Aburizal Bakrie (ARB) diprediksi meraih antara 13,2% hingga 20,1% menurut LSI, yang melakukan survei pada 6-16 Januari, yang melibatkan 1.200 responden dari 34 provinsi. Responden yang disurvei terlibat dalam wawancara mendalam.
Survei terbaru juga memprediksi masa depan yang suram bagi Partai Demokrat (PD), yang diperkirakan hanya mendapat kurang dari 5% suara nasional dalam pemilu legislatif 2014.
Survei LSI mendapati bahwa Partai Demokrat hanya akan meraih 4,7% suara jika pemilu berlangsung hari ini, turun dari 20,5% yang berhasil dikumpulkannya dalam pemilu legislatif 2009.
"Ini akan menjadi sulit bagi Demokrat untuk rebound mengingat bahwa pemilu hanya tiga bulan lagi," kata Adjie lagi.
LSI mengatakan kemunduran besar Demokrat akibat dakwaan dan vonis pidana sejumlah mantan eksekutif partai dalam kasus korupsi.
Hasil survei juga menemukan bahwa selain rendahnya elektabilitas parpol, persaingan individu dalam konvensi presiden Partai Demokrat gagal meningkatkan citra partai di mata publik.
Para peserta konvensi capres Demokrat hampir tidak diakui oleh responden yang diwawancarai dalam survei LSI.
Menurut survei, jika pemilu berlangsung hari ini, tak satu pun dari 11 peserta konvensi tersebut akan mampu meraih suara lebih dari 3%.
Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara Dahlan Iskan, misalnya, hanya meraih 2,5% suara, sementara mantan Kasad Jenderal (Purn) Pramono Edhie Wibowo hanya 2,1%. Ketua DPR Marzuki Alie, hanya meraih 2%.
Peserta lain dalam konvensi tersebut rata-rata perolehannya kurang dari 2%.
"Hal ini penting mengingat besarnya suara rakyat yang diraih oleh Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono dalam pemilihan presiden tahun 2004 dan 2009. Dia meraih lebih dari 60 persen suara," kata Adjie.
Tampaknya Partai Demokrat akan gagal mengikuti pemilihan presiden, LSI memprediksi hanya Golkar dan PDI-P yang bisa meloloskan calon presidennya dari hasil pemilihan legislatif 2014.
LSI memperkirakan PDI-P akan meraih 18,3% mengungguli Golkar dengan 18,2%, dan apabila pemilu berlangsung hari ini, Demokrat akan dilampaui oleh Prabowo melalui Gerindra, yang diperkirakan meraih 8,7%.
Berbagai lembaga survei telah menyebutkan serangkaian kasus korupsi di balik kemerosotan Partai Demokrat.
Tahun lalu, Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (KPK) menetapkan mantan Ketua Umum Partai Demokrat, Anas Urbaningrum sebagai tersangka korupsi karena diduga menerima suap terkait pembangunan kompleks olahraga Hambalang.
KPK juga menetapkan politisi senior Demokrat dan mantan menteri pemuda dan olahraga Andi Mallarangeng sebagai tersangka dalam kasus korupsi Hambalang.
Jakarta (B2B) - A new survey has found that Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is twice as popular as Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party chief patron Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto.
A public opinion survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) has found that if a presidential election were to take place today, Jokowi would receive between 22.3 and 35.6 percent of the vote, against Prabowo who would garner between 12.6 and 19.7 percent.
The survey estimated the largest amount of votes garnered by both Jokowi and Prabowo could only materialize if undecided voters — who made up 30 percent of the electorate — made up their minds.
LSI senior researcher Adjie Alfaraby said the success of Jokowi would rub off on his political party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), in the legislative election.
“If Jokowi is nominated by the PDI-P, his position at the top will be secured, leaving the fight for second place between Prabowo and [Golkar Party chairman] Aburizal Bakrie,” Adjie said.
Aburizal is predicted to garner between 13.2 and 20.1 percent of the vote according to the LSI, which conducted the survey between Jan. 6 and 16, involving 1,200 respondents from the country’s 34 provinces. Respondents in the survey were engaged in in-depth interviews.
The new survey also predicted a gloomy future for the ruling Democratic Party (PD), which is expected to gain less than 5 percent of the national vote in the 2014 legislative election.
The LSI survey has found that the PD would only receive 4.7 percent of the vote if an election were to take place today, a drop from the 20.5 percent the party garnered in the 2009 legislative election.
“It will be difficult for the PD to rebound given that the election is only three months away,” Adjie said over the weekend.
The LSI said a major setback for the PD was the prosecution of a number of former party executives in graft cases.
The pollster also found that in addition to the party’s poor electability, individuals competing in the PD presidential convention had failed in their attempts to improve the party’s image.
The participants were barely recognized by respondents interviewed in the LSI survey.
According to the study, if an election were to take place today, none of the 11 participants in the PD presidential primary would secure more than 3 percent of the vote.
State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, for example, would garner only 2.5 percent of the vote, while former Army chief Gen. (ret) Pramono Edhie Wibowo would get 2.1 percent.
House of Representatives Speaker Marzuki Alie, meanwhile, would receive 2 percent of the vote.
Other participants in the convention would secure less than 2 percent of the vote.
“This is significant when considering the large number of votes garnered by Yudhoyono in the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections. He secured more than 60 percent of the vote,” said the LSI’s Adjie.
With the PD seemingly out of the running, the LSI predicted only Golkar and the PDI-P could seriously entertain finishing first in the 2014 legislative election.
The LSI predicted the PDI-P would secure 18.3 percent against Golkar’s 18.2 percent, and found that if an election were to take place today, the PD would lag behind Prabowo’s Gerindra, which was expected to garner 8.7 percent of the vote.
Various pollsters have cited a string of corruption cases behind the PD’s slump.
Last year, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) named then-PD chairman Anas Urbaningrum a graft suspect for allegedly accepting a bribe in relation to the construction of the Hambalang sports complex.
The KPK has also named senior PD politician and former youth and sports minister Andi Mallarangeng a suspect in the Hambalang graft case.
