BBM, Kenaikan Harga akan Picu Inflasi 8,5% dalam 4 Bulan

Fuel Prices Hikes to Trigger 8,5% Inflation to 4 Months

Reporter : Gatot Priyantono
Editor : Cahyani Harzi
Translator : Dhelia Gani


BBM, Kenaikan Harga akan Picu Inflasi 8,5% dalam 4 BulanFoto: hakimrodamas.wordpress.com

Jakarta (B2B) - Citi Securities meramalkan, apabila pemerintah menyadari rencana untuk menaikkan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) bersubsidi, akan memicu inflasi sekitar 8% hingga 8,5%.

"Kami memperkirakan tingkat inflasi antara 8 persen dan 8,5 persen jika pemerintah menaikkan harga minyak solar sebesar 22 persen dan bensin premium sebesar 44 persen," kata Kepala Riset Citi Indonesia Securities, Ferry Wong dalam sebuah seminar di Jakarta, Kamis (16/5).

Herry mengatakan bahwa kebijakan pemerintah untuk menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi akan mempengaruhi investor, khususnya yang berkaitan dengan biaya produksi. Tapi itu hanya akan bertahan untuk jangka pendek.

"Dampaknya hanya akan berlangsung dalam jangka waktu pendek. Ini akan berlangsung selama sekitar tiga sampai empat bulan. Setelah itu akan kembali normal," kata Ferry.

Dia mengatakan bahwa perusahaan-perusahaan besar di Indonesia telah menggunakan bahan bakar dengan harga internasional sehingga mereka tidak akan merasakan dampak parah dari kenaikan BBM bersubsidi.

"Dampak nyata akan lebih terasa oleh perusahaan kecil dan menengah. Mereka belum menggunakan bahan bakar non-subsidi sejauh ini," kata Ferry.

Ferry menambahkan bahwa harga bensin per upah minimum, di Jakarta khususnya, sangat rendah dibandingkan sembilan tahun terakhir sehingga diperkirakan bahwa hal itu tidak akan mempengaruhi daya beli masyarakat.

"Pada 2004, harga bensin Rp1.800 sedangkan upah minimum adalah Rp500 ribu. Sekarang harga bensin Rp4.500 sedangkan upah minimum mencapai Rp2 juta. Ini berarti bahwa daya beli rakyat tidak terlampau melemah," kata Ferry.

Jakarta (B2B) - Citi Securities has predicted that if the government realizes its plan to increase subsidized fuel oil prices, it will trigger an inflation of about 8 percent to 8.5 percent.

"We predict an inflation rate between 8 percent and 8.5 percent if the government raises the price of diesel oil by 22 percent and premium gasoline by 44 percent," Head of Indonesia Research of Citi Securities, Ferry Wong said at seminar in Jakarta, Thursday (16/5).

Herry said that the government`s policy to increase subsidized fuel oil prices would slightly affect the investors, particularly with regard to the production cost. But it would only last for a short term.

"The impact will only take place in short term. It will last for about three to four months. After that it will return to normal," noted Ferry.

He said that big companies in Indonesia had been using fuels with international prices so that they would not feel severe impact of the subsidized fuel price rises.

"The real impact would be felt more by small and medium firms. They have not yet used non-subsidized fuels so far," said Ferry.

Ferry added that the price of gasoline per minimum wage, in Jakarta in particular, had been very low compared with that in the past nine years so that it was predicted that it would not affect the people`s purchasing power to much.

"In 2004, gasoline price was Rp1.800 while the minimum wage was Rp500 thousands. Now the price of gasoline is Rp4.500 while the minimum wage has reached Rp2 million. This means that the people´s  purchasing power should not be weakened too much," Ferry said.